Heatwaves in India and Pakistan: What is happening?<\/h2>\n\n
High temperatures in India are not unusual. However, such high temperatures over the course of several weeks is a whole different story. These extremely warm temperatures started as early as March 11th in northern India, and were due to anticylconic conditions on the western parts of the Rajasthan and to a lack of rain. Not only was it the warmest month of March in 122 years (according to the IMD<\/a>, the Indian Meteorological Department), but the heat did not ease for an entire month. <\/p>\n\n The heatwave continued into April and even became worse in May, with temperature 4.5\u00b0C to 8.5\u00b0C higher than normal values. Note that heatwaves vary between countries and regions.<\/a> The IMD considers that an area is under a heatwave if temperatures are higher than 40\u00b0C in the plains, or at least 30\u00b0C in mountains, for at least two consecutive days.<\/span><\/p>\n\n In order to better understand the intensity of this heatwave, see the monthly average temperatures in India since 1986:<\/p>\n\n Are these values significantly different? Absolutely. If this happened in Antarctica<\/a>, 5 or 7\u00b0C higher would be relatively common. But in India, such values are in the top centile of the distribution.These heatwaves are exceptional for two reasons: Their intensity, but also their duration.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n These heatwave episodes are just as extraordinary in Pakistan. April has been especially hot and dry, the warmest month of April in the last 61 years. According to the Pakistan meteorological department<\/a><\/strong>, the average national temperature was 28.36\u00b0C, which is 4.05\u00b0C higher than normal values between 1961 and 1990 (and 3\u00b0C higher than between 1991 and 2020). April 2022 was the warmest month ever on record, with an staggering difference of almost 1\u00b0C with the second warmest month on record (April 2010).<\/em>. <\/p>\n\n On May 12th, 13th and 14th, temperatures in Jacobabad reached 50\u00b0C<\/a>, while other parts of the country reached almost 50\u00b0C as well. We can only hope that these temperatures will go down in the next few days, given that the humid phase of the monsoon only starts between the end of June and the beginning and July in the north-west of India or in Pakistan.<\/p>\n\n What are the consequences of these heat waves?<\/p>\n\n The worst isn\u2019t the raw air temperature (dry-bulb), but the maximum wet bulb temperature. The wet-bulb temperature measures the combination of heat and humidity, and reflects the ability of a human body to cool down through evaporation (sweating) of water into the air. When the wet bulb temperature reaches values above 30\u00b0C, we are unable to lower our body temperature through sweating, and we die from a heat stroke in the following hours (usually between 4 and 6 hours). The result is the same, whether or not you have water. <\/p>\n\n Warning<\/span>: This is a complicated, heterogeneous concept, which can have different meanings depending on the region where it is used. For instance, the French press has used 35\u00b0C as the lethality threshold for more than a month now, while recent studies show this treshold to be closer to 31\u00b0C.<\/a><\/p>\n\n Of course, this only applies to people in good health. It\u2019s possible to have serious health problems or die even at a lower humidity temperature. Indeed, 28 degrees can be enough:<\/a> Such values were reached during the European and Russian heatwaves of 2003 and 2010, causing the death of tens of thousands of people.<\/p>\n\n NB1: The humidex is also based an interesting calculation (not to be confused with the wet-bulb thermometer, which is measured with a psychrometer).<\/p>\n\n NB2: The IPCC uses the notion of “Heat Index” (HI). As is the case with heat waves, the Heat Index differs depending on geographical areas (and therefore does not have an international value that could be applied everywhere). Chapter 12 of the latest IPCC report provides an illustration of the areas at risk, including India and Pakistan: <\/p>\n\n The Indian labor market is far from being adapted to present and future climate hazards. Sophie Landrin, correspondent for the French newspaper \u201cLe Monde<\/em>\u201d in India, provides us with some details regarding workers during the heatwave: <\/p>\n\n “On the contrary, people continue to work, in spite of extreme conditions, because the majority of workers are not employed. They belong to what is called the “informal sector”: they have no insurance and no work contract. If they are not working, they are not compensated. During the first and second waves of Covid-19, they had to return to their villages, despite the fact that transport had stopped, because they could no longer work, nor find accommodation or food.”<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n Otherwise said: Work, or you won’t have any money to buy your food. Work, or die. These are the horrid conditions in which tens of millions of Indians go to work in factories, in construction, in the fields, etc. They can’t rely on air conditioning either: Only around 12% of the population<\/a> has access to air conditioning, the vast majority of which are the affluent. <\/p>\n\n There are two major consequences to this. The first is that India loses more than 100 billion working hours per year due to heat waves.<\/a> This country is by far the most concerned by the subject, and the figures anticipated by a warming of +2\u00b0C or +4\u00b0C are staggering. <\/p>\n\n The second consequence is of course the health of the workers. Being forced to work under 45\u00b0C because you have no choice comes with mutliple adverse effects on health: Hyperthermia, heat strokes, dehydration, reduced cognitive capacity, accidents, psychiatric disorders, etc.<\/strong> For those fortunate enough to be able to go to the hospital, we can only hope that the hospitals can anticipate and withstand the increased need for healthcare.<\/p>\n\n Agriculture is one of the sectors that will suffer the most from these heat waves and droughts<\/a>. 39% of the Pakistani population works in agriculture<\/a>, accounting for 18.5% of the GDP. In India, more than half of the population works in this sector, accounting for about 23% of the GDP.<\/a> A lower GDP because of heat waves isn’t the only source of concern for India. Perhaps one of the most dreaded impacts is the impact on crops, in a region of the world where many depend on wheat to eat. According to testimonies, there are farmers who have lost between 10 and 50%<\/a> of their crop because of the heat wave.<\/p>\n\n While the Indian authorities declared that the country was not on the verge of food insecurity in April, the discourse completely changed on Saturday, May 14<\/a>:“India prohibited wheat exports that the world was counting on to alleviate supply constraints sparked by the war in Ukraine, saying that the food security of the nation was under threat.”<\/em><\/p>\n\n Javier Blas, a specialist in raw materials at Bloomberg, anticipates high inflation: “Before the export ban, India was expected to be one of the top-10 wheat exporters for the 2022-23 crop season. Removing all (or part of) India’s expected wheat exports creates a massive hole in the global supply and demand. Wheat prices will continue to rise, and will do so quickly.<\/em>“<\/p>\n\n While these announcements are subject to change and are dependent on future conditions, they are a reminder that a political decision can put an end to exports…and therefore imports from other countries. Decades of globalization have not prepared countries to withstand climatic hazards and their consequences. What will happen if no decision is taken to strengthen the food security of countries and the world warms up to +1.5\u00b0C, 2\u00b0C or even 3\u00b0C?<\/p>\n\n One of the most common ways to cope with a heat wave is to turn on air conditioning. This solution is not without consequences, especially in a country like India. Almost 80% of the electricity mix comes from fossil fuels, and just over 70% from coal. Given that the authorities had not anticipated the heat waves to last so long, the high demand for electricity has depleted coal stocks and power cuts have been very frequent in the country for the last two months, sometimes for several hours. We’re not here talking about a few homes, but about two-thirds of the households<\/a>, or hundreds of millions of people. <\/p>\n\n To meet the explosion in electricity demand, Coal India<\/a> has restarted production at record levels. It\u2019s just like a snake dying with its tail in its mouth. This is what happens when you manage a power system \u2014 and more generally an energy system \u2014 precipitately without any planning.<\/strong> Decisions are made in a hurry, which can potentially aggravate climate change and therefore amplify hazards and disasters.<\/p>\n\n One of the identified risks of ongoing global warming is that each region could experience more extreme weather events, sometimes combined, and with multiple consequences.<\/strong> This is more likely to happen with +2\u00b0C warming than 1.5\u00b0C (and even more so with additional warming levels). Translate “combined” as “several simultaneously” (a heatwave<\/a>, followed by mega-fires<\/a> for instance, just like in Canada in June 2021<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n There have been several similar cases in Pakistan over the past two months. With the heat wave, glaciers melt much faster than expected which can have a cascading effect. This is what happened with several glacial lake failures, including the one on the Shisper glacier. <\/p>\n\n![\"Average](\"https:\/\/bonpote.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Average-High-and-Low-Temperature-in-India.png\")
A similar situation in Pakistan<\/span><\/h3>\n\n
![\"50](\"https:\/\/bonpote.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Pakistan-heatwave.jpg\")
Consequence #1: The wet-bulb temperature<\/h2>\n\n
![\"The](\"https:\/\/bonpote.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/humidex-tableau.jpg\")
![\"(d-f)](\"https:\/\/bonpote.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Heat-index-1024x463.jpg\")
Consequence#2: Work…and health<\/h2>\n\n
![\"India](\"https:\/\/bonpote.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/india-hours-lost.jpg\")
Consequence #3: Agriculture<\/h2>\n\n
![\"India](\"https:\/\/bonpote.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/top-10-exportateurs-ble.png\")
Consequence #4: Restarting coal production v. blackout<\/h2>\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/bonpote.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Electricite-Inde-1024x377.jpg\")
Consequence #5: The combined effects <\/h2>\n\n